Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 83419.561935 88032.682497 92642.152469 97590.285697 102748.260021 107963.123814 113630.647317
2024-12-15 76455.972391 83569.953993 90874.422890 98924.692013 107537.378377 116464.996227 126408.001859
2024-12-22 70375.918734 79119.417528 88293.544373 98615.840926 109884.738873 121791.838973 135302.454560
2024-12-29 66929.709286 77016.698449 87790.727013 100119.443463 113800.261023 128479.509064 145383.708354
2025-01-05 63779.305176 74915.373281 86997.699605 101028.501160 116819.619780 133988.171968 154010.073649
2025-01-12 60574.729237 72507.450434 85641.012778 101097.928651 118717.331077 138101.591318 160963.194974
2025-01-19 57635.347353 70211.555732 84238.460013 100951.333800 120226.041347 141660.880376 167199.632484
2025-01-26 56200.566505 69541.004068 84596.413931 102730.376074 123858.850949 147576.579212 176085.907651
2025-02-02 54904.019667 68940.734514 84957.512279 104445.406769 127367.576926 153322.447538 184775.034391
2025-02-09 53207.819047 67775.777993 84578.252031 105223.450788 129729.934942 157710.384631 191881.878760
2025-02-16 51158.471772 66096.113002 83508.443681 105109.719911 130981.144344 160759.847999 197402.093667
2025-02-23 49587.914891 64927.679675 82987.359067 105593.843528 132894.960368 164555.453397 203784.540847
2025-03-02 47812.717657 63471.368715 82095.979382 105625.074161 134282.060020 167768.653806 209552.909302
2025-03-09 46806.794356 62930.768021 82290.219104 106954.686145 137227.518033 172847.706249 217578.043168
2025-03-16 45029.092068 61357.306400 81156.964779 106605.815817 138094.031441 175411.304832 222582.574682
2025-03-23 44308.330918 61089.536739 81615.589405 108201.823661 141328.294772 180831.841990 231051.385912
2025-03-30 43337.119539 60461.524123 81590.247524 109168.278196 143770.738577 185289.712487 238369.195001
2025-04-06 42008.862328 59325.522820 80882.779948 109241.945960 145077.650083 188346.230804 243978.148825
2025-04-13 40648.385493 58102.397673 80023.548020 109085.901667 146067.233782 190993.875706 249079.963218
2025-04-20 40265.690854 58149.605820 80779.610729 110978.860938 149633.158722 196834.626941 258146.795967
2025-04-27 39876.917146 58169.910507 81487.530692 112803.339972 153115.803823 202587.991010 267139.348288
2025-05-04 39086.665448 57624.428152 81436.580417 113630.916929 155321.761456 206751.924933 274172.587546
2025-05-11 37939.689178 56561.881778 80676.931428 113509.950010 156293.224149 209357.430915 279259.181425